Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Emelec vs Independiente del Valle — Liga Pro 2026

Emelec
Emelec
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
7/18/2022Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 2Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Emelec40%
×Draw27%
Independiente del Valle33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emelec
1.32
Independiente del Valle
1.19

Emelec creates 11% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 133 away

creates per match

Emelec
1.47
Independiente del Valle
1.56

allows per match

Emelec
0.82
Independiente del Valle
1.17

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Emelec or draw
67%
Emelec or Independiente del Valle
73%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
60%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+
18%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals
73%
Emelec 2+ goals
38%
Emelec 3+ goals
15%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
70%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
33%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)
54%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.82 · 132 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.47 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.32

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + Emelec defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Emelec scores more
40%
level
27%
Independiente del Valle scores more
33%

Emelec at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Emelec vs Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle beat Emelec 3-2 in Liga Pro on July 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio George Capwell in Guayaquil.