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Emelec vs Independiente del Valle — Liga Pro 2026

Emelec
Emelec
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
9/6/2020Liga ProLiga Pro · 1° Turno - 11Estadio Banco del Pacífico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Emelec24%
×Draw25%
Independiente del Valle51%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emelec
1.05
Independiente del Valle
1.64

Independiente del Valle creates 56% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Emelec
1.26
Independiente del Valle
1.78

allows per match

Emelec
1.49
Independiente del Valle
0.84

finishing

Emelec-0.59scores less
Independiente del Valle+0.11scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Emelec or draw
49%
Emelec or Independiente del Valle
75%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
76%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+
9%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals
65%
Emelec 2+ goals
28%
Emelec 3+ goals
9%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
81%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
49%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)
32%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.49 · 6 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.84 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.26 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.05

Independiente del Valle attack 1.78 + Emelec defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Emelec scores more
24%
level
25%
Independiente del Valle scores more
51%

Independiente del Valle at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Emelec vs Independiente del Valle

Emelec and Independiente del Valle drew 2-2 in Liga Pro on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Banco del Pacífico in Guayaquil.