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Emelec vs El Nacional — Liga Pro 2026

Emelec
Emelec
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
El Nacional
El Nacional
9/21/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 29Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Emelec49%
×Draw26%
El Nacional24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emelec
1.49
El Nacional
0.96

Emelec creates 55% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 91 away

creates per match

Emelec
1.47
El Nacional
1.08

allows per match

Emelec
0.83
El Nacional
1.51

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par
El Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

El Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Emelec or draw
76%
Emelec or El Nacional
74%
Draw or El Nacional
51%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+
25%
El Nacional wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals
77%
Emelec 2+ goals
44%
Emelec 3+ goals
19%
El Nacional 1+ goals
62%
El Nacional 2+ goals
25%
El Nacional 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)
67%
El Nacional (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

El Nacional away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.47 + El Nacional defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.49

El Nacional attack 1.08 + Emelec defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Emelec scores more
49%
level
26%
El Nacional scores more
24%

Emelec at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Emelec 4–0 El Nacional

Emelec beat El Nacional 4-0 in Liga Pro on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio George Capwell in Guayaquil.