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Emelec vs Cumbayá — Liga Pro 2026

Emelec
Emelec
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cumbayá
Cumbayá
A. Leguizamón 90+8'
J. Ayoví 71' (pen), 32'
10/7/2023Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 9Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Emelec60%
×Draw24%
Cumbayá17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emelec
1.69
Cumbayá
0.76

Emelec creates 122% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 45 away

creates per match

Emelec
1.47
Cumbayá
0.71

allows per match

Emelec
0.82
Cumbayá
1.91

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par
Cumbayá+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Cumbayá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Emelec or draw
83%
Emelec or Cumbayá
76%
Draw or Cumbayá
40%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+
33%
Cumbayá wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals
82%
Emelec 2+ goals
50%
Emelec 3+ goals
24%
Cumbayá 1+ goals
53%
Cumbayá 2+ goals
18%
Cumbayá 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)
78%
Cumbayá (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.82 · 132 matches

Cumbayá away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.47 + Cumbayá defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.69

Cumbayá attack 0.71 + Emelec defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Emelec scores more
60%
level
24%
Cumbayá scores more
17%

Emelec at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
J. AyovíEmelecEmelec · F
8.2

Match Events

22'
Juan Carlos Paredes
32'
J. Ayoví
43'
Miller Bolaños
46'
M. Díaz← J. Almagro
52'
José CevallosGoal cancelled
57'
A. Pucheta← H. Batalla
59'
Jimmy Mina
69'
Darwin Suarez
70'
Alexis ZapataGoal confirmed
71'
J. AyovíPenalty
72'
D. Rodríguez← Thiago
72'
L. Ontivero← A. Pucheta
76'
I. Valsangiácomo← A. Maziero
82'
C. Villalba← J. Espinoza
83'
S. Sosa← D. García
88'
B. Angulo← J. Ayoví
88'
J. Sánchez← A. Zapata
90+7'
Melvin Diaz
90+3'
T. Chamba← J. Cevallos
90+8'
A. Leguizamón↳ R. Caicedo

Possession

62%Emelec

Shots

20Emelec

Pass accuracy

54%Emelec

Statistics

EmelecCumbayá
Overview
62%Possession38%
20Total Shots7
12Corners1
12Fouls8
Shots
20Total Shots7
6On Target3
8Off Target2
6Blocked2
15Inside Box2
5Outside Box5
Passing
62%Possession38%
474Total Passes299
402Accurate Passes212
85%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls8
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Emelec vs Cumbayá

Emelec beat Cumbayá 3-0 in Liga Pro on October 7, 2023.

Goals: J. Ayoví (32', 71' pen), A. Leguizamón (90+8').

Emelec controlled possession (62%) and registered 20 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio George Capwell in Guayaquil.