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EM Mahdia vs US Monastirienne — Cup 2019

EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
US Monastirienne
US Monastirienne
A. Souayah 40', 10'
Z. Aloui 78', 53'
Y. Abdelli 28'
5/25/2021CupCup · 16th FinalsStade Mustapha Ben Jannet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

EM Mahdia24%
×Draw22%
US Monastirienne54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EM Mahdia
1.23
US Monastirienne
1.94

US Monastirienne creates 58% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

EM Mahdia
1.33
US Monastirienne
1.88

allows per match

EM Mahdia
2.00
US Monastirienne
1.13

finishing

EM Mahdia+0.00on par
US Monastirienne+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EM Mahdia ↓

US Monastirienne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

EM Mahdia or draw
46%
EM Mahdia or US Monastirienne
78%
Draw or US Monastirienne
76%

Winning margin

EM Mahdia wins by 2+
10%
US Monastirienne wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

EM Mahdia 1+ goals
71%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
35%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
13%
US Monastirienne 1+ goals
86%
US Monastirienne 2+ goals
58%
US Monastirienne 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
31%
US Monastirienne (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EM Mahdia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

US Monastirienne away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EM Mahdia attack 1.33 + US Monastirienne defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

US Monastirienne attack 1.88 + EM Mahdia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

EM Mahdia scores more
24%
level
22%
US Monastirienne scores more
54%

US Monastirienne at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "US Monastirienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
A. Souayah
28'
Y. Abdelli
40'
A. Souayah
53'
Z. Aloui
78'
Z. Aloui

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: EM Mahdia 2–3 US Monastirienne

US Monastirienne beat EM Mahdia 3-2 in Cup on May 25, 2021.

Goals: A. Souayah (10', 40'), Y. Abdelli (28'), Z. Aloui (53', 78').

The match was played at Stade Mustapha Ben Jannet in Monastir.