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EM Mahdia vs Stade Gabesien — Ligue 2 2020

EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stade Gabesien
Stade Gabesien
3/4/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade Ahmed Khouaja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

EM Mahdia41%
×Draw30%
Stade Gabesien29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EM Mahdia
1.17
Stade Gabesien
0.93

EM Mahdia creates 26% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 60 away

creates per match

EM Mahdia
1.21
Stade Gabesien
0.73

allows per match

EM Mahdia
1.14
Stade Gabesien
1.12

finishing

EM Mahdia+0.00on par
Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EM Mahdia ↓

Stade Gabesien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

EM Mahdia or draw
71%
EM Mahdia or Stade Gabesien
70%
Draw or Stade Gabesien
59%

Winning margin

EM Mahdia wins by 2+
18%
Stade Gabesien wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

EM Mahdia 1+ goals
69%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
33%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
11%
Stade Gabesien 1+ goals
61%
Stade Gabesien 2+ goals
24%
Stade Gabesien 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
59%
Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EM Mahdia at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

Stade Gabesien away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.12 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EM Mahdia attack 1.21 + Stade Gabesien defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Stade Gabesien attack 0.73 + EM Mahdia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

EM Mahdia scores more
41%
level
30%
Stade Gabesien scores more
29%

EM Mahdia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "EM Mahdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EM Mahdia vs Stade Gabesien

Stade Gabesien beat EM Mahdia 1-0 in Ligue 2 on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Khouaja in Mahdia.