EM Mahdia 2–1 SS Sfaxien: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

EM Mahdia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

SS Sfaxien

12/7/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 6Stade Ahmed Khouaja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

EM Mahdia50%

×Draw27%

SS Sfaxien23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EM MahdiaExpected goals in this matchSS Sfaxien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.86

EM Mahdia

1.42

SS Sfaxien

0.86

EM Mahdia creates 65% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 22 away

1.21

creates per match

0.59

1.14

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

EM Mahdia

1.21

SS Sfaxien

0.59

allows per match

EM Mahdia

1.14

SS Sfaxien

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EM Mahdia+0.00on par

SS Sfaxien+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EM Mahdia ↓

SS Sfaxien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

EM Mahdia or draw

77%

EM Mahdia or SS Sfaxien

73%

Draw or SS Sfaxien

50%

Winning margin

EM Mahdia wins by 2+

25%

SS Sfaxien wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

EM Mahdia 1+ goals

76%

EM Mahdia 2+ goals

41%

EM Mahdia 3+ goals

17%

SS Sfaxien 1+ goals

58%

SS Sfaxien 2+ goals

21%

SS Sfaxien 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)

69%

SS Sfaxien (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EM Mahdia at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

SS Sfaxien away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EM Mahdia attack 1.21 + SS Sfaxien defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

SS Sfaxien attack 0.59 + EM Mahdia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

EM Mahdia scores more

50%

level

27%

SS Sfaxien scores more

23%

EM Mahdia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "EM Mahdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff