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EM Mahdia vs Oued Ellil — Ligue 2 2020

EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
FT
1 – 1
Oued Ellil
Oued Ellil
A. Laamiri 21'
W. Chehaibi 45'
11/28/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade de Mahdia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

EM Mahdia46%
×Draw28%
Oued Ellil26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EM Mahdia
1.29
Oued Ellil
0.90

EM Mahdia creates 43% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 46 away

creates per match

EM Mahdia
1.21
Oued Ellil
0.65

allows per match

EM Mahdia
1.14
Oued Ellil
1.37

finishing

EM Mahdia+0.00on par
Oued Ellil+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EM Mahdia ↓

Oued Ellil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

EM Mahdia or draw
74%
EM Mahdia or Oued Ellil
72%
Draw or Oued Ellil
54%

Winning margin

EM Mahdia wins by 2+
21%
Oued Ellil wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

EM Mahdia 1+ goals
72%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
37%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
14%
Oued Ellil 1+ goals
59%
Oued Ellil 2+ goals
23%
Oued Ellil 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
64%
Oued Ellil (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EM Mahdia at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

Oued Ellil away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.37 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EM Mahdia attack 1.21 + Oued Ellil defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Oued Ellil attack 0.65 + EM Mahdia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

EM Mahdia scores more
46%
level
28%
Oued Ellil scores more
26%

EM Mahdia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "EM Mahdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
A. Laamiri
45'
W. Chehaibi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EM Mahdia vs Oued Ellil

EM Mahdia and Oued Ellil drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on November 28, 2021.

Goals: A. Laamiri (21'), W. Chehaibi (45').

The match was played at Stade de Mahdia in Mahdia.