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EM Mahdia vs M'saken — Ligue 2 2020

EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
M'saken
M'saken
10/25/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

EM Mahdia43%
×Draw29%
M'saken27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EM Mahdia
1.21
M'saken
0.89

EM Mahdia creates 36% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 59 away

creates per match

EM Mahdia
1.21
M'saken
0.63

allows per match

EM Mahdia
1.14
M'saken
1.20

finishing

EM Mahdia+0.00on par
M'saken+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EM Mahdia ↓

M'saken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

EM Mahdia or draw
73%
EM Mahdia or M'saken
71%
Draw or M'saken
57%

Winning margin

EM Mahdia wins by 2+
19%
M'saken wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

EM Mahdia 1+ goals
70%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
34%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
12%
M'saken 1+ goals
59%
M'saken 2+ goals
22%
M'saken 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
62%
M'saken (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EM Mahdia at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

M'saken away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.20 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EM Mahdia attack 1.21 + M'saken defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

M'saken attack 0.63 + EM Mahdia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

EM Mahdia scores more
43%
level
29%
M'saken scores more
27%

EM Mahdia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "EM Mahdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EM Mahdia vs M'saken

M'saken beat EM Mahdia 2-1 in Ligue 2 on October 25, 2025.