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EM Mahdia vs Kerkennah — Ligue 2 2020

EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Kerkennah
Kerkennah
A. Nguili 16'
H. Mannai 77'
M. Mejri 63', 45'
5/11/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

EM Mahdia37%
×Draw29%
Kerkennah35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EM Mahdia
1.15
Kerkennah
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 38 away

creates per match

EM Mahdia
1.21
Kerkennah
1.08

allows per match

EM Mahdia
1.14
Kerkennah
1.08

finishing

EM Mahdia+0.00on par
Kerkennah+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EM Mahdia ↓

Kerkennah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

EM Mahdia or draw
65%
EM Mahdia or Kerkennah
71%
Draw or Kerkennah
63%

Winning margin

EM Mahdia wins by 2+
15%
Kerkennah wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

EM Mahdia 1+ goals
68%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
32%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
11%
Kerkennah 1+ goals
67%
Kerkennah 2+ goals
30%
Kerkennah 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
51%
Kerkennah (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EM Mahdia at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

Kerkennah away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EM Mahdia attack 1.21 + Kerkennah defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Kerkennah attack 1.08 + EM Mahdia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

EM Mahdia scores more
37%
level
29%
Kerkennah scores more
35%

EM Mahdia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "EM Mahdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
A. Nguili
45'
M. Mejri
63'
M. Mejri
77'
H. Mannai

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EM Mahdia vs Kerkennah

Kerkennah beat EM Mahdia 3-1 in Ligue 2 on May 11, 2026.

Goals: A. Nguili (16'), M. Mejri (45', 63'), H. Mannai (77').