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EM Mahdia vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane — Ligue 2 2020

EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
FT
0 – 2
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
5/27/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 22Stade Ahmed Khouaja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

EM Mahdia31%
×Draw29%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EM Mahdia
0.99
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1.15

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane creates 16% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 23 away

creates per match

EM Mahdia
1.21
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1.17

allows per match

EM Mahdia
1.14
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.78

finishing

EM Mahdia+0.00on par
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EM Mahdia ↓

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

EM Mahdia or draw
61%
EM Mahdia or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
71%
Draw or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
69%

Winning margin

EM Mahdia wins by 2+
12%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

EM Mahdia 1+ goals
63%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
26%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
8%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals
68%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals
32%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
44%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EM Mahdia at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EM Mahdia attack 1.21 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.99

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 1.17 + EM Mahdia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

EM Mahdia scores more
31%
level
29%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more
39%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jeunesse Sportive Omrane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: EM Mahdia 0–2 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane beat EM Mahdia 2-0 in Ligue 2 on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Khouaja in Mahdia.