EM Mahdia 1–1 Jendouba Sport: Result & Stats

EM Mahdia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Jendouba Sport

12/7/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade Ahmed Khouaja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

EM Mahdia39%

×Draw29%

Jendouba Sport31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EM MahdiaExpected goals in this matchJendouba Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.00

EM Mahdia

1.16

Jendouba Sport

1.00

EM Mahdia creates 16% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 59 away

1.21

creates per match

0.86

1.14

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

EM Mahdia

1.21

Jendouba Sport

0.86

allows per match

EM Mahdia

1.14

Jendouba Sport

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EM Mahdia+0.00on par

Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EM Mahdia ↓

Jendouba Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

EM Mahdia or draw

69%

EM Mahdia or Jendouba Sport

71%

Draw or Jendouba Sport

61%

Winning margin

EM Mahdia wins by 2+

17%

Jendouba Sport wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

EM Mahdia 1+ goals

69%

EM Mahdia 2+ goals

32%

EM Mahdia 3+ goals

11%

Jendouba Sport 1+ goals

63%

Jendouba Sport 2+ goals

26%

Jendouba Sport 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)

56%

Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EM Mahdia at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EM Mahdia attack 1.21 + Jendouba Sport defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Jendouba Sport attack 0.86 + EM Mahdia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

EM Mahdia scores more

39%

level

29%

Jendouba Sport scores more

31%

EM Mahdia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "EM Mahdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff