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EM Mahdia vs ES Zarzis — Ligue 2 2020

EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis
O. Mlat 51' (pen)
A. Jabri 74'
A. Jerou 53'
4/29/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 18Stade Ahmed Khouaja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

EM Mahdia32%
×Draw28%
ES Zarzis40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EM Mahdia
1.10
ES Zarzis
1.26

ES Zarzis creates 15% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 31 away

creates per match

EM Mahdia
1.21
ES Zarzis
1.39

allows per match

EM Mahdia
1.14
ES Zarzis
1.00

finishing

EM Mahdia+0.00on par
ES Zarzis+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EM Mahdia ↓

ES Zarzis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

EM Mahdia or draw
60%
EM Mahdia or ES Zarzis
72%
Draw or ES Zarzis
68%

Winning margin

EM Mahdia wins by 2+
13%
ES Zarzis wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

EM Mahdia 1+ goals
67%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
30%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
10%
ES Zarzis 1+ goals
72%
ES Zarzis 2+ goals
36%
ES Zarzis 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
45%
ES Zarzis (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EM Mahdia at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

ES Zarzis away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EM Mahdia attack 1.21 + ES Zarzis defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

ES Zarzis attack 1.39 + EM Mahdia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

EM Mahdia scores more
32%
level
28%
ES Zarzis scores more
40%

ES Zarzis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ES Zarzis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
O. MlatPenalty
53'
A. Jerou
74'
A. Jabri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EM Mahdia vs ES Zarzis

ES Zarzis beat EM Mahdia 2-1 in Ligue 2 on April 29, 2023.

Goals: O. Mlat (51' pen), A. Jerou (53'), A. Jabri (74').

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Khouaja in Mahdia.