EM Mahdia 3–1 Djerba: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

EM Mahdia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Djerba

3/18/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 14Stade Ahmed Khouaja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

EM Mahdia47%

×Draw29%

Djerba24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EM MahdiaExpected goals in this matchDjerba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.84

EM Mahdia

1.29

Djerba

0.84

EM Mahdia creates 54% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 22 away

1.21

creates per match

0.55

1.14

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

EM Mahdia

1.21

Djerba

0.55

allows per match

EM Mahdia

1.14

Djerba

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EM Mahdia+0.00on par

Djerba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EM Mahdia ↓

Djerba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

EM Mahdia or draw

76%

EM Mahdia or Djerba

71%

Draw or Djerba

53%

Winning margin

EM Mahdia wins by 2+

22%

Djerba wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

EM Mahdia 1+ goals

72%

EM Mahdia 2+ goals

37%

EM Mahdia 3+ goals

14%

Djerba 1+ goals

57%

Djerba 2+ goals

21%

Djerba 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)

66%

Djerba (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EM Mahdia at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

Djerba away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EM Mahdia attack 1.21 + Djerba defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Djerba attack 0.55 + EM Mahdia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

EM Mahdia scores more

47%

level

29%

Djerba scores more

24%

EM Mahdia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "EM Mahdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff