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EM Mahdia vs AS Rejiche — Ligue 2 2020

EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
AS Rejiche
AS Rejiche
M. H. Slimene 79' (pen)
O. Mlat 54'
A. Laamiri 29', 7'
H. Chaouachi 36'
6/1/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade Ahmed Khouaja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

EM Mahdia52%
×Draw27%
AS Rejiche21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EM Mahdia
1.44
AS Rejiche
0.82

EM Mahdia creates 76% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 12 away

creates per match

EM Mahdia
1.21
AS Rejiche
0.50

allows per match

EM Mahdia
1.14
AS Rejiche
1.67

finishing

EM Mahdia+0.00on par
AS Rejiche+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EM Mahdia ↓

AS Rejiche →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

EM Mahdia or draw
79%
EM Mahdia or AS Rejiche
73%
Draw or AS Rejiche
48%

Winning margin

EM Mahdia wins by 2+
26%
AS Rejiche wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

EM Mahdia 1+ goals
76%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
42%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
18%
AS Rejiche 1+ goals
56%
AS Rejiche 2+ goals
20%
AS Rejiche 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
71%
AS Rejiche (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EM Mahdia at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

AS Rejiche away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EM Mahdia attack 1.21 + AS Rejiche defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

AS Rejiche attack 0.50 + EM Mahdia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

EM Mahdia scores more
52%
level
27%
AS Rejiche scores more
21%

EM Mahdia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "EM Mahdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
A. Laamiri
29'
A. Laamiri
36'
H. Chaouachi
54'
O. Mlat
79'
M. H. SlimenePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: EM Mahdia 4–1 AS Rejiche

EM Mahdia beat AS Rejiche 4-1 in Ligue 2 on June 1, 2024.

Goals: A. Laamiri (7', 29'), H. Chaouachi (36'), O. Mlat (54'), M. H. Slimene (79' pen).

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Khouaja in Mahdia.