EM Mahdia 1–1 AS Gabes: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

EM Mahdia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

AS Gabes

12/28/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 13Stade Ahmed Khouaja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

EM Mahdia42%

×Draw28%

AS Gabes30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EM MahdiaExpected goals in this matchAS Gabes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.01

EM Mahdia

1.25

AS Gabes

1.01

EM Mahdia creates 24% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 36 away

1.21

creates per match

0.89

1.14

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

EM Mahdia

1.21

AS Gabes

0.89

allows per match

EM Mahdia

1.14

AS Gabes

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EM Mahdia+0.00on par

AS Gabes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EM Mahdia ↓

AS Gabes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

EM Mahdia or draw

70%

EM Mahdia or AS Gabes

72%

Draw or AS Gabes

58%

Winning margin

EM Mahdia wins by 2+

19%

AS Gabes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

EM Mahdia 1+ goals

71%

EM Mahdia 2+ goals

36%

EM Mahdia 3+ goals

13%

AS Gabes 1+ goals

64%

AS Gabes 2+ goals

27%

AS Gabes 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)

58%

AS Gabes (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EM Mahdia at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

AS Gabes away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EM Mahdia attack 1.21 + AS Gabes defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

AS Gabes attack 0.89 + EM Mahdia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

EM Mahdia scores more

42%

level

28%

AS Gabes scores more

30%

EM Mahdia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "EM Mahdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff