Elverum 6–1 Ullensaker / Kisa II: Result & Stats

Elverum

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Ullensaker / Kisa II

6/9/2025

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 9Elverum Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Elverum93%

×Draw5%

Ullensaker / Kisa II2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElverumExpected goals in this matchUllensaker / Kisa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.85

0.81

Elverum

4.85

Ullensaker / Kisa II

0.81

Elverum creates 499% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

4.08

creates per match

0.77

0.85

allows per match

5.62

creates per match

Elverum

4.08

Ullensaker / Kisa II

0.77

allows per match

Elverum

0.85

Ullensaker / Kisa II

5.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elverum+0.00on par

Ullensaker / Kisa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elverum ↓

Ullensaker / Kisa II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–14%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (10%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

76%24%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Elverum or draw

98%

Elverum or Ullensaker / Kisa II

95%

Draw or Ullensaker / Kisa II

7%

Winning margin

Elverum wins by 2+

83%

Ullensaker / Kisa II wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Elverum 1+ goals

99%

Elverum 2+ goals

94%

Elverum 3+ goals

82%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 1+ goals

56%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 2+ goals

19%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Elverum (draw refunded)

98%

Ullensaker / Kisa II (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elverum at home — creates 4.08, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Ullensaker / Kisa II away — creates 0.77, concedes 5.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elverum attack 4.08 + Ullensaker / Kisa II defence 5.62 → ÷2 → 4.85

Ullensaker / Kisa II attack 0.77 + Elverum defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Elverum scores more

93%

level

5%

Ullensaker / Kisa II scores more

2%

Elverum at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Elverum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff