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Elverum vs Senja — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Elverum
Elverum
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Senja
Senja
9/15/20192. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Round 20Elverum Stadion (Elverum)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Elverum59%
×Draw21%
Senja20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elverum
2.12
Senja
1.16

Elverum creates 83% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Elverum
1.85
Senja
0.77

allows per match

Elverum
1.54
Senja
2.38

finishing

Elverum+0.00on par
Senja+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elverum ↓

Senja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Elverum or draw
80%
Elverum or Senja
79%
Draw or Senja
41%

Winning margin

Elverum wins by 2+
36%
Senja wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Elverum 1+ goals
88%
Elverum 2+ goals
62%
Elverum 3+ goals
35%
Senja 1+ goals
69%
Senja 2+ goals
32%
Senja 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Elverum (draw refunded)
74%
Senja (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elverum at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Senja away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elverum attack 1.85 + Senja defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.12

Senja attack 0.77 + Elverum defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Elverum scores more
59%
level
21%
Senja scores more
20%

Elverum at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Elverum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elverum vs Senja

Elverum beat Senja 1-0 in 2. Division - Group 2 on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Elverum Stadion (Elverum).