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Elverum vs Raufoss II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Elverum
Elverum
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Raufoss II
Raufoss II
10/2/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 22Elverum Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Elverum75%
×Draw14%
Raufoss II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elverum
2.87
Raufoss II
0.98

Elverum creates 193% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Elverum
2.58
Raufoss II
0.88

allows per match

Elverum
1.08
Raufoss II
3.15

finishing

Elverum+0.00on par
Raufoss II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elverum ↓

Raufoss II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Elverum or draw
90%
Elverum or Raufoss II
86%
Draw or Raufoss II
25%

Winning margin

Elverum wins by 2+
55%
Raufoss II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Elverum 1+ goals
94%
Elverum 2+ goals
77%
Elverum 3+ goals
53%
Raufoss II 1+ goals
62%
Raufoss II 2+ goals
26%
Raufoss II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Elverum (draw refunded)
88%
Raufoss II (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elverum at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Raufoss II away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elverum attack 2.58 + Raufoss II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.87

Raufoss II attack 0.88 + Elverum defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Elverum scores more
75%
level
14%
Raufoss II scores more
10%

Elverum at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Elverum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Elverum 3–0 Raufoss II

Elverum beat Raufoss II 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on October 2, 2023.

The match was played at Elverum Stadion in Elverum.