Elverum 3–1 Mjølner: Result & Stats

Elverum

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mjølner

7/21/2024

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 13Elverum Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Elverum64%

×Draw17%

Mjølner19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElverumExpected goals in this matchMjølner

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

1.47

Elverum

2.75

Mjølner

1.47

Elverum creates 87% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 46 away

3.32

creates per match

1.57

1.37

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Elverum

3.32

Mjølner

1.57

allows per match

Elverum

1.37

Mjølner

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elverum+0.00on par

Mjølner+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elverum ↓

Mjølner →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Elverum or draw

81%

Elverum or Mjølner

83%

Draw or Mjølner

36%

Winning margin

Elverum wins by 2+

43%

Mjølner wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Elverum 1+ goals

93%

Elverum 2+ goals

75%

Elverum 3+ goals

51%

Mjølner 1+ goals

77%

Mjølner 2+ goals

43%

Mjølner 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Elverum (draw refunded)

77%

Mjølner (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elverum at home — creates 3.32, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Mjølner away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elverum attack 3.32 + Mjølner defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.75

Mjølner attack 1.57 + Elverum defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Elverum scores more

64%

level

17%

Mjølner scores more

19%

Elverum at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Elverum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff