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Elverum vs Hødd II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Elverum
Elverum
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hødd II
Hødd II
B. Lysebo Johansen 58'
J. Lynum 47'
M. Solum 40'
O. Aske 90'
6/17/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 10Elverum Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Elverum65%
×Draw17%
Hødd II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elverum
2.73
Hødd II
1.41

Elverum creates 94% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Elverum
2.58
Hødd II
1.73

allows per match

Elverum
1.08
Hødd II
2.88

finishing

Elverum+0.00on par
Hødd II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elverum ↓

Hødd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Elverum or draw
82%
Elverum or Hødd II
83%
Draw or Hødd II
35%

Winning margin

Elverum wins by 2+
44%
Hødd II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Elverum 1+ goals
93%
Elverum 2+ goals
75%
Elverum 3+ goals
50%
Hødd II 1+ goals
76%
Hødd II 2+ goals
41%
Hødd II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Elverum (draw refunded)
78%
Hødd II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elverum at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Hødd II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elverum attack 2.58 + Hødd II defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.73

Hødd II attack 1.73 + Elverum defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Elverum scores more
65%
level
17%
Hødd II scores more
18%

Elverum at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Elverum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
V. Kamess
40'
M. Solum
47'
J. Lynum
58'
B. Lysebo Johansen
90'
O. Aske

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Elverum 3–1 Hødd II

Elverum beat Hødd II 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 17, 2023.

Goals: M. Solum (40'), J. Lynum (47'), B. Lysebo Johansen (58'), O. Aske (90').

The match was played at Elverum Stadion in Elverum.