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Elverum vs Floro — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Elverum
Elverum
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Floro
Floro
8/31/20192. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Round 18Elverum Stadion (Elverum)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Elverum50%
×Draw23%
Floro27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elverum
1.81
Floro
1.27

Elverum creates 43% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Elverum
1.85
Floro
1.00

allows per match

Elverum
1.54
Floro
1.77

finishing

Elverum+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elverum ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Elverum or draw
73%
Elverum or Floro
77%
Draw or Floro
50%

Winning margin

Elverum wins by 2+
28%
Floro wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Elverum 1+ goals
84%
Elverum 2+ goals
54%
Elverum 3+ goals
27%
Floro 1+ goals
72%
Floro 2+ goals
36%
Floro 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Elverum (draw refunded)
65%
Floro (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elverum at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Floro away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elverum attack 1.85 + Floro defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.81

Floro attack 1.00 + Elverum defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Elverum scores more
50%
level
23%
Floro scores more
27%

Elverum at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Elverum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elverum 3 – 2 Floro

Elverum beat Floro 3-2 in 2. Division - Group 2 on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Elverum Stadion (Elverum).