Elversberg U19 1–3 Sportfreunde Siegen U19

Elversberg U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

L. Notarrigo 9'

H. Nakai 88'

B. Ngyombo 79'

D. Omeragic 36'

5/17/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 14Sportanlage Am Franzschacht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Elversberg U1945%

×Draw19%

Sportfreunde Siegen U1937%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elversberg U19Expected goals in this matchSportfreunde Siegen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

2.38

Elversberg U19

2.63

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

2.38

Elversberg U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 7 away

1.12

creates per match

2.00

2.77

allows per match

4.14

creates per match

Elversberg U19

1.12

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

2.00

allows per match

Elversberg U19

2.77

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

4.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elversberg U19+0.00on par

Sportfreunde Siegen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elversberg U19 ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Elversberg U19 or draw

63%

Elversberg U19 or Sportfreunde Siegen U19

81%

Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen U19

55%

Winning margin

Elversberg U19 wins by 2+

27%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Elversberg U19 1+ goals

93%

Elversberg U19 2+ goals

73%

Elversberg U19 3+ goals

48%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 1+ goals

91%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 2+ goals

68%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Elversberg U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elversberg U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.77 · 26 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 4.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elversberg U19 attack 1.12 + Sportfreunde Siegen U19 defence 4.14 → ÷2 → 2.63

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 attack 2.00 + Elversberg U19 defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Elversberg U19 scores more

45%

level

19%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 scores more

37%

Elversberg U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Elversberg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

L. Notarrigo

36'

D. Omeragic

46'

N. Weinel← L. Sauter

53'

J. Lotz← Imad

58'

J. Kriebus← N. Backes

58'

Y. Dörholt← L. Heiler

76'

D. Adrovic← B. Angong

76'

H. Nakai← D. Omeragic

79'

80'

88'

89'

89'

I. Dulenchuck← J. Adozi

89'

M. Garcia← H. El Chaabi

Elversberg

Sportfreunde

Schneider

Schonlau

Peci

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: D. Abazadze

46'▲N. Weinel←▼L. Sauter

58'▲J. Kriebus←▼N. Backes

58'▲Y. Dörholt←▼L. Heiler

80'▲P. Lorenz←▼K. Maurer

Elversberg U19 substitutes

WeinelKriebusDörholtLorenz

Manager: M. Aslan

53'▲J. Lotz←▼Imad

76'▲D. Adrovic←▼B. Angong

76'▲H. Nakai←▼D. Omeragic

89'▲D. Osawaru←▼M. Zilz

89'▲I. Dulenchuck←▼J. Adozi

89'▲M. Garcia←▼H. El Chaabi

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 substitutes

LotzAdrovicNakaiOsawaruDulenchuckGarciaEngel