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Elversberg U19 vs Heidenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Elversberg U19
Elversberg U19
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Heidenheim U19
Heidenheim U19
12/3/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 12Ellenfeldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Elversberg U1923%
×Draw20%
Heidenheim U1957%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elversberg U19
1.35
Heidenheim U19
2.23

Heidenheim U19 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 71 away

creates per match

Elversberg U19
1.12
Heidenheim U19
1.68

allows per match

Elversberg U19
2.77
Heidenheim U19
1.58

finishing

Elversberg U19+0.00on par
Heidenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elversberg U19 ↓

Heidenheim U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Elversberg U19 or draw
43%
Elversberg U19 or Heidenheim U19
80%
Draw or Heidenheim U19
77%

Winning margin

Elversberg U19 wins by 2+
10%
Heidenheim U19 wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Elversberg U19 1+ goals
74%
Elversberg U19 2+ goals
39%
Elversberg U19 3+ goals
15%
Heidenheim U19 1+ goals
89%
Heidenheim U19 2+ goals
65%
Heidenheim U19 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Elversberg U19 (draw refunded)
28%
Heidenheim U19 (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elversberg U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.77 · 26 matches

Heidenheim U19 away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.58 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elversberg U19 attack 1.12 + Heidenheim U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Heidenheim U19 attack 1.68 + Elversberg U19 defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Elversberg U19 scores more
23%
level
20%
Heidenheim U19 scores more
57%

Heidenheim U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Heidenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Elversberg U19 1–5 Heidenheim U19

Heidenheim U19 beat Elversberg U19 5-1 in U19 Bundesliga on December 3, 2024.

The match was played at Ellenfeldstadion in Neunkirchen.