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Elversberg II vs Hertha Wiesbach — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Elversberg II
Elversberg II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hertha Wiesbach
Hertha Wiesbach
8/20/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 4Friedrichsthal Rasen 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Elversberg II33%
×Draw21%
Hertha Wiesbach46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elversberg II
1.81
Hertha Wiesbach
2.15

Hertha Wiesbach creates 19% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 42 away

creates per match

Elversberg II
1.32
Hertha Wiesbach
1.95

allows per match

Elversberg II
2.36
Hertha Wiesbach
2.31

finishing

Elversberg II+0.00on par
Hertha Wiesbach+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elversberg II ↓

Hertha Wiesbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Elversberg II or draw
54%
Elversberg II or Hertha Wiesbach
79%
Draw or Hertha Wiesbach
67%

Winning margin

Elversberg II wins by 2+
17%
Hertha Wiesbach wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Elversberg II 1+ goals
84%
Elversberg II 2+ goals
54%
Elversberg II 3+ goals
27%
Hertha Wiesbach 1+ goals
88%
Hertha Wiesbach 2+ goals
63%
Hertha Wiesbach 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Elversberg II (draw refunded)
42%
Hertha Wiesbach (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elversberg II at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.36 · 25 matches

Hertha Wiesbach away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elversberg II attack 1.32 + Hertha Wiesbach defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.81

Hertha Wiesbach attack 1.95 + Elversberg II defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Elversberg II scores more
33%
level
21%
Hertha Wiesbach scores more
46%

Hertha Wiesbach at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hertha Wiesbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Elversberg II 0–2 Hertha Wiesbach

Hertha Wiesbach beat Elversberg II 2-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Friedrichsthal Rasen 2 in Friedrichsthal.