Elversberg II 0–6 Eisbachtal: Result & Stats

Elversberg II

FT

0 – 6

Eisbachtal

4/30/2023

Oberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 8Friedrichsthal Rasen 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Elversberg II25%

×Draw20%

Eisbachtal54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elversberg IIExpected goals in this matchEisbachtal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.25

Elversberg II

1.50

Eisbachtal

2.25

Eisbachtal creates 50% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

1.50

3.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Elversberg II

1.00

Eisbachtal

1.50

allows per match

Elversberg II

3.00

Eisbachtal

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elversberg II+0.00on par

Eisbachtal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elversberg II ↓

Eisbachtal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Elversberg II or draw

46%

Elversberg II or Eisbachtal

80%

Draw or Eisbachtal

75%

Winning margin

Elversberg II wins by 2+

11%

Eisbachtal wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Elversberg II 1+ goals

78%

Elversberg II 2+ goals

44%

Elversberg II 3+ goals

19%

Eisbachtal 1+ goals

89%

Eisbachtal 2+ goals

65%

Eisbachtal 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Elversberg II (draw refunded)

32%

Eisbachtal (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elversberg II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Eisbachtal away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elversberg II attack 1.00 + Eisbachtal defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Eisbachtal attack 1.50 + Elversberg II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Elversberg II scores more

25%

level

20%

Eisbachtal scores more

54%

Eisbachtal at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Eisbachtal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff