Elversberg II 1–2 Diefflen: Result & Stats

Elversberg II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Diefflen

2/18/2023

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 20Friedrichsthal Rasen 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Elversberg II35%

×Draw21%

Diefflen44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elversberg IIExpected goals in this matchDiefflen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

2.06

Elversberg II

1.83

Diefflen

2.06

Diefflen creates 13% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 79 away

1.32

creates per match

1.77

2.36

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Elversberg II

1.32

Diefflen

1.77

allows per match

Elversberg II

2.36

Diefflen

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elversberg II+0.00on par

Diefflen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elversberg II ↓

Diefflen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Elversberg II or draw

56%

Elversberg II or Diefflen

79%

Draw or Diefflen

65%

Winning margin

Elversberg II wins by 2+

18%

Diefflen wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Elversberg II 1+ goals

84%

Elversberg II 2+ goals

54%

Elversberg II 3+ goals

28%

Diefflen 1+ goals

87%

Diefflen 2+ goals

61%

Diefflen 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Elversberg II (draw refunded)

44%

Diefflen (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elversberg II at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.36 · 25 matches

Diefflen away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.34 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elversberg II attack 1.32 + Diefflen defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.83

Diefflen attack 1.77 + Elversberg II defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Elversberg II scores more

35%

level

21%

Diefflen scores more

44%

Diefflen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Diefflen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff