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Elversberg II vs Auersmacher — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Elversberg II
Elversberg II
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 4
Auersmacher
Auersmacher
10/26/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 10Friedrichsthal Rasen 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Elversberg II34%
×Draw22%
Auersmacher45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elversberg II
1.67
Auersmacher
1.95

Auersmacher creates 17% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 63 away

creates per match

Elversberg II
1.32
Auersmacher
1.54

allows per match

Elversberg II
2.36
Auersmacher
2.03

finishing

Elversberg II+0.00on par
Auersmacher+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elversberg II ↓

Auersmacher →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Elversberg II or draw
55%
Elversberg II or Auersmacher
78%
Draw or Auersmacher
66%

Winning margin

Elversberg II wins by 2+
16%
Auersmacher wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Elversberg II 1+ goals
81%
Elversberg II 2+ goals
50%
Elversberg II 3+ goals
23%
Auersmacher 1+ goals
86%
Auersmacher 2+ goals
58%
Auersmacher 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Elversberg II (draw refunded)
43%
Auersmacher (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elversberg II at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.36 · 25 matches

Auersmacher away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.03 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elversberg II attack 1.32 + Auersmacher defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.67

Auersmacher attack 1.54 + Elversberg II defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Elversberg II scores more
34%
level
22%
Auersmacher scores more
45%

Auersmacher at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Auersmacher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Elversberg II 0–7 Auersmacher

Auersmacher beat Elversberg II 7-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 26, 2022.

The match was played at Friedrichsthal Rasen 2 in Friedrichsthal.