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Elversberg II vs Arminia Ludwigshafen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Elversberg II
Elversberg II
CANC
14:00
Arminia Ludwigshafen
Arminia Ludwigshafen
2/7/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 17Elversberg Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Elversberg II32%
×Draw21%
Arminia Ludwigshafen47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elversberg II
1.74
Arminia Ludwigshafen
2.12

Arminia Ludwigshafen creates 22% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 79 away

creates per match

Elversberg II
1.32
Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.87

allows per match

Elversberg II
2.36
Arminia Ludwigshafen
2.16

finishing

Elversberg II+0.00on par
Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elversberg II ↓

Arminia Ludwigshafen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Elversberg II or draw
53%
Elversberg II or Arminia Ludwigshafen
79%
Draw or Arminia Ludwigshafen
68%

Winning margin

Elversberg II wins by 2+
16%
Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Elversberg II 1+ goals
82%
Elversberg II 2+ goals
52%
Elversberg II 3+ goals
25%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals
88%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals
62%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Elversberg II (draw refunded)
41%
Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elversberg II at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.36 · 25 matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen away — creates 1.87, concedes 2.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elversberg II attack 1.32 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.74

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 1.87 + Elversberg II defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Elversberg II scores more
32%
level
21%
Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more
47%

Arminia Ludwigshafen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arminia Ludwigshafen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elversberg II face Arminia Ludwigshafen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar returns with Elversberg II hosting Arminia Ludwigshafen. Match starts February 7, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Elversberg II host Arminia Ludwigshafen at Elversberg Kunstrasen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.