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Elversberg II vs Alemannia Waldalgesheim — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Elversberg II
Elversberg II
FT
1 – 3
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
5/3/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 3Friedrichsthal Rasen 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Elversberg II15%
×Draw17%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elversberg II
1.08
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
2.50

Alemannia Waldalgesheim creates 131% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Elversberg II
1.00
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
2.00

allows per match

Elversberg II
3.00
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.17

finishing

Elversberg II+0.00on par
Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elversberg II ↓

Alemannia Waldalgesheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Elversberg II or draw
32%
Elversberg II or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
83%
Draw or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
85%

Winning margin

Elversberg II wins by 2+
5%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Elversberg II 1+ goals
66%
Elversberg II 2+ goals
29%
Elversberg II 3+ goals
10%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
92%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
71%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Elversberg II (draw refunded)
18%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elversberg II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elversberg II attack 1.00 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 2.00 + Elversberg II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Elversberg II scores more
15%
level
17%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
68%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Alemannia Waldalgesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elversberg II 1 – 3 Alemannia Waldalgesheim

Alemannia Waldalgesheim beat Elversberg II 3-1 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on May 3, 2023.

The match was played at Friedrichsthal Rasen 2 in Friedrichsthal.