Elva 1–2 Tartu Welco: Result & Stats | Esiliiga A

Elva

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Tartu Welco

8/4/2025

Esiliiga A · Round 22Nike Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Elva45%

×Draw22%

Tartu Welco33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElvaExpected goals in this matchTartu Welco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.63

Elva

1.92

Tartu Welco

1.63

Elva creates 18% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 75 away

1.96

creates per match

1.73

1.53

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Elva

1.96

Tartu Welco

1.73

allows per match

Elva

1.53

Tartu Welco

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elva+0.00on par

Tartu Welco+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elva ↓

Tartu Welco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Elva or draw

67%

Elva or Tartu Welco

78%

Draw or Tartu Welco

55%

Winning margin

Elva wins by 2+

25%

Tartu Welco wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Elva 1+ goals

85%

Elva 2+ goals

57%

Elva 3+ goals

30%

Tartu Welco 1+ goals

80%

Tartu Welco 2+ goals

48%

Tartu Welco 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Elva (draw refunded)

57%

Tartu Welco (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elva at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.53 · 129 matches

Tartu Welco away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.89 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elva attack 1.96 + Tartu Welco defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.92

Tartu Welco attack 1.73 + Elva defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Elva scores more

45%

level

22%

Tartu Welco scores more

33%

Elva at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Elva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff