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Eltersdorf vs Würzburger FV — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eltersdorf
Eltersdorf
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
3/6/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 23Sportanlage Langenau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Eltersdorf58%
×Draw22%
Würzburger FV20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eltersdorf
1.88
Würzburger FV
1.00

Eltersdorf creates 88% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Eltersdorf
1.75
Würzburger FV
1.31

allows per match

Eltersdorf
0.68
Würzburger FV
2.00

finishing

Eltersdorf+0.00on par
Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eltersdorf ↓

Würzburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Eltersdorf or draw
80%
Eltersdorf or Würzburger FV
78%
Draw or Würzburger FV
42%

Winning margin

Eltersdorf wins by 2+
34%
Würzburger FV wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Eltersdorf 1+ goals
85%
Eltersdorf 2+ goals
56%
Eltersdorf 3+ goals
29%
Würzburger FV 1+ goals
63%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
26%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Eltersdorf (draw refunded)
74%
Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eltersdorf at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.68 · 68 matches

Würzburger FV away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eltersdorf attack 1.75 + Würzburger FV defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Würzburger FV attack 1.31 + Eltersdorf defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Eltersdorf scores more
58%
level
22%
Würzburger FV scores more
20%

Eltersdorf at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Eltersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eltersdorf vs Würzburger FV

Eltersdorf beat Würzburger FV 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on March 6, 2026.

The match was played at Sportanlage Langenau in Erlangen.