Eltersdorf 0–2 Stadeln: Result & Stats

Eltersdorf

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Stadeln

7/18/2025

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 1Sportanlage Langenau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eltersdorf65%

×Draw21%

Stadeln14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EltersdorfExpected goals in this matchStadeln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.78

Eltersdorf

1.94

Stadeln

0.78

Eltersdorf creates 149% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

1.75

creates per match

0.88

0.68

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Eltersdorf

1.75

Stadeln

0.88

allows per match

Eltersdorf

0.68

Stadeln

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eltersdorf+0.00on par

Stadeln+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eltersdorf ↓

Stadeln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Eltersdorf or draw

86%

Eltersdorf or Stadeln

79%

Draw or Stadeln

35%

Winning margin

Eltersdorf wins by 2+

39%

Stadeln wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Eltersdorf 1+ goals

86%

Eltersdorf 2+ goals

58%

Eltersdorf 3+ goals

30%

Stadeln 1+ goals

54%

Stadeln 2+ goals

18%

Stadeln 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Eltersdorf (draw refunded)

82%

Stadeln (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eltersdorf at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.68 · 68 matches

Stadeln away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eltersdorf attack 1.75 + Stadeln defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.94

Stadeln attack 0.88 + Eltersdorf defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Eltersdorf scores more

65%

level

21%

Stadeln scores more

14%

Eltersdorf at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Eltersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff