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Eltersdorf vs Karlburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eltersdorf
Eltersdorf
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Karlburg
Karlburg
9/17/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 8Sportanlage Langenau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eltersdorf71%
×Draw18%
Karlburg12%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eltersdorf
2.31
Karlburg
0.81

Eltersdorf creates 185% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Eltersdorf
1.75
Karlburg
0.94

allows per match

Eltersdorf
0.68
Karlburg
2.88

finishing

Eltersdorf+0.00on par
Karlburg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eltersdorf ↓

Karlburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Eltersdorf or draw
88%
Eltersdorf or Karlburg
82%
Draw or Karlburg
29%

Winning margin

Eltersdorf wins by 2+
47%
Karlburg wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Eltersdorf 1+ goals
90%
Eltersdorf 2+ goals
67%
Eltersdorf 3+ goals
40%
Karlburg 1+ goals
56%
Karlburg 2+ goals
19%
Karlburg 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Eltersdorf (draw refunded)
86%
Karlburg (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eltersdorf at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.68 · 68 matches

Karlburg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eltersdorf attack 1.75 + Karlburg defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.31

Karlburg attack 0.94 + Eltersdorf defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Eltersdorf scores more
71%
level
18%
Karlburg scores more
12%

Eltersdorf at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Eltersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Eltersdorf 3–0 Karlburg

Eltersdorf beat Karlburg 3-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportanlage Langenau in Erlangen.