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Eltersdorf vs Jahn Regensburg II — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eltersdorf
Eltersdorf
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jahn Regensburg II
Jahn Regensburg II
F. Rippert 77'
M. Gobhardt 38'
N. Anspach 24'
10/6/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 15Sportanlage Langenau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Eltersdorf55%
×Draw23%
Jahn Regensburg II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eltersdorf
1.83
Jahn Regensburg II
1.08

Eltersdorf creates 69% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 69 away

creates per match

Eltersdorf
1.75
Jahn Regensburg II
1.48

allows per match

Eltersdorf
0.68
Jahn Regensburg II
1.91

finishing

Eltersdorf+0.00on par
Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eltersdorf ↓

Jahn Regensburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Eltersdorf or draw
78%
Eltersdorf or Jahn Regensburg II
77%
Draw or Jahn Regensburg II
45%

Winning margin

Eltersdorf wins by 2+
31%
Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eltersdorf 1+ goals
84%
Eltersdorf 2+ goals
54%
Eltersdorf 3+ goals
28%
Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals
66%
Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals
29%
Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Eltersdorf (draw refunded)
71%
Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eltersdorf at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.68 · 68 matches

Jahn Regensburg II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eltersdorf attack 1.75 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.83

Jahn Regensburg II attack 1.48 + Eltersdorf defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Eltersdorf scores more
55%
level
23%
Jahn Regensburg II scores more
22%

Eltersdorf at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Eltersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
N. Anspach
38'
M. Gobhardt
77'
F. Rippert
83'
P. Ort

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Eltersdorf 2–1 Jahn Regensburg II

Eltersdorf beat Jahn Regensburg II 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on October 6, 2024.

Goals: N. Anspach (24'), M. Gobhardt (38'), F. Rippert (77').

The match was played at Sportanlage Langenau in Erlangen.