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Eltersdorf vs Fortuna Regensburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eltersdorf
Eltersdorf
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
9/30/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 12Sportanlage Langenau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Eltersdorf52%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Regensburg24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eltersdorf
1.81
Fortuna Regensburg
1.16

Eltersdorf creates 56% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

Eltersdorf
1.75
Fortuna Regensburg
1.63

allows per match

Eltersdorf
0.68
Fortuna Regensburg
1.86

finishing

Eltersdorf+0.00on par
Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eltersdorf ↓

Fortuna Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Eltersdorf or draw
76%
Eltersdorf or Fortuna Regensburg
77%
Draw or Fortuna Regensburg
48%

Winning margin

Eltersdorf wins by 2+
29%
Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Eltersdorf 1+ goals
84%
Eltersdorf 2+ goals
54%
Eltersdorf 3+ goals
27%
Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
69%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
32%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Eltersdorf (draw refunded)
68%
Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eltersdorf at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.68 · 68 matches

Fortuna Regensburg away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eltersdorf attack 1.75 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.81

Fortuna Regensburg attack 1.63 + Eltersdorf defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Eltersdorf scores more
52%
level
23%
Fortuna Regensburg scores more
24%

Eltersdorf at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Eltersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Eltersdorf 2–1 Fortuna Regensburg

Eltersdorf beat Fortuna Regensburg 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 30, 2025.

The match was played at Sportanlage Langenau in Erlangen.