Eltersdorf 3–1 Eintracht Münchberg: Result & Stats

Eltersdorf

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Eintracht Münchberg

Y. Jassmann 73', 60', 49'

M. Hoffmann 74'

8/31/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 9Sportanlage Langenau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eltersdorf69%

×Draw18%

Eintracht Münchberg12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EltersdorfExpected goals in this matchEintracht Münchberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.81

Eltersdorf

2.23

Eintracht Münchberg

0.81

Eltersdorf creates 175% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

1.75

creates per match

0.94

0.68

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Eltersdorf

1.75

Eintracht Münchberg

0.94

allows per match

Eltersdorf

0.68

Eintracht Münchberg

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eltersdorf+0.00on par

Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eltersdorf ↓

Eintracht Münchberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Eltersdorf or draw

88%

Eltersdorf or Eintracht Münchberg

82%

Draw or Eintracht Münchberg

31%

Winning margin

Eltersdorf wins by 2+

46%

Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Eltersdorf 1+ goals

89%

Eltersdorf 2+ goals

65%

Eltersdorf 3+ goals

38%

Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals

56%

Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals

19%

Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Eltersdorf (draw refunded)

85%

Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eltersdorf at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.68 · 68 matches

Eintracht Münchberg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eltersdorf attack 1.75 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.23

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.94 + Eltersdorf defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Eltersdorf scores more

69%

level

18%

Eintracht Münchberg scores more

12%

Eltersdorf at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Eltersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

Y. Jassmann

60'

Y. Jassmann

73'

Y. Jassmann

74'

M. Hoffmann

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff