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Eltersdorf vs Bayern Hof — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eltersdorf
Eltersdorf
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bayern Hof
Bayern Hof
11/4/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 20Sportanlage Langenau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Eltersdorf51%
×Draw24%
Bayern Hof25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eltersdorf
1.69
Bayern Hof
1.09

Eltersdorf creates 55% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Eltersdorf
1.75
Bayern Hof
1.51

allows per match

Eltersdorf
0.68
Bayern Hof
1.62

finishing

Eltersdorf+0.00on par
Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eltersdorf ↓

Bayern Hof →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Eltersdorf or draw
75%
Eltersdorf or Bayern Hof
76%
Draw or Bayern Hof
49%

Winning margin

Eltersdorf wins by 2+
28%
Bayern Hof wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Eltersdorf 1+ goals
82%
Eltersdorf 2+ goals
50%
Eltersdorf 3+ goals
24%
Bayern Hof 1+ goals
66%
Bayern Hof 2+ goals
30%
Bayern Hof 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Eltersdorf (draw refunded)
68%
Bayern Hof (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eltersdorf at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.68 · 68 matches

Bayern Hof away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eltersdorf attack 1.75 + Bayern Hof defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.69

Bayern Hof attack 1.51 + Eltersdorf defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eltersdorf scores more
51%
level
24%
Bayern Hof scores more
25%

Eltersdorf at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Eltersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eltersdorf vs Bayern Hof

Eltersdorf and Bayern Hof drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Langenau in Erlangen.