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Eltersdorf vs ATSV Erlangen — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eltersdorf
Eltersdorf
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
L. Markert 90+3'
8/15/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 5Sportanlage Langenau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Eltersdorf56%
×Draw24%
ATSV Erlangen20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eltersdorf
1.72
ATSV Erlangen
0.92

Eltersdorf creates 87% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Eltersdorf
1.75
ATSV Erlangen
1.15

allows per match

Eltersdorf
0.68
ATSV Erlangen
1.69

finishing

Eltersdorf+0.00on par
ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eltersdorf ↓

ATSV Erlangen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Eltersdorf or draw
80%
Eltersdorf or ATSV Erlangen
76%
Draw or ATSV Erlangen
44%

Winning margin

Eltersdorf wins by 2+
31%
ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Eltersdorf 1+ goals
82%
Eltersdorf 2+ goals
51%
Eltersdorf 3+ goals
25%
ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
60%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
23%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Eltersdorf (draw refunded)
74%
ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eltersdorf at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.68 · 68 matches

ATSV Erlangen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eltersdorf attack 1.75 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.72

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.15 + Eltersdorf defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Eltersdorf scores more
56%
level
24%
ATSV Erlangen scores more
20%

Eltersdorf at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Eltersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+3'
L. Markert

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Eltersdorf 0–1 ATSV Erlangen

ATSV Erlangen beat Eltersdorf 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on August 15, 2025.

Goals: L. Markert (90+3').

The match was played at Sportanlage Langenau in Erlangen.