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Eltendorf vs Parndorf — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Eltendorf
Eltendorf
FT
1 – 1
Parndorf
Parndorf
10/18/2019Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 12Navigat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Eltendorf34%
×Draw21%
Parndorf45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eltendorf
1.89
Parndorf
2.17

Parndorf creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 71 away

creates per match

Eltendorf
2.50
Parndorf
2.20

allows per match

Eltendorf
2.13
Parndorf
1.28

finishing

Eltendorf+0.00on par
Parndorf+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eltendorf ↓

Parndorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Eltendorf or draw
55%
Eltendorf or Parndorf
79%
Draw or Parndorf
66%

Winning margin

Eltendorf wins by 2+
18%
Parndorf wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Eltendorf 1+ goals
85%
Eltendorf 2+ goals
56%
Eltendorf 3+ goals
29%
Parndorf 1+ goals
89%
Parndorf 2+ goals
64%
Parndorf 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Eltendorf (draw refunded)
43%
Parndorf (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eltendorf at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Parndorf away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.28 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eltendorf attack 2.50 + Parndorf defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.89

Parndorf attack 2.20 + Eltendorf defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eltendorf scores more
34%
level
21%
Parndorf scores more
45%

Parndorf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Parndorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Burgenland: Eltendorf 1–1 Parndorf

Eltendorf and Parndorf drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Burgenland on October 18, 2019.

The match was played at Navigat Arena in Eltendorf.