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Eltendorf vs Markt Allhau — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Eltendorf
Eltendorf
CANC
15:30
Markt Allhau
Markt Allhau
5/16/2020Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 26Navigat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Eltendorf51%
×Draw20%
Markt Allhau29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eltendorf
2.35
Markt Allhau
1.75

Eltendorf creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 41 away

creates per match

Eltendorf
2.50
Markt Allhau
1.37

allows per match

Eltendorf
2.13
Markt Allhau
2.20

finishing

Eltendorf+0.00on par
Markt Allhau+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eltendorf ↓

Markt Allhau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Eltendorf or draw
71%
Eltendorf or Markt Allhau
80%
Draw or Markt Allhau
49%

Winning margin

Eltendorf wins by 2+
31%
Markt Allhau wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Eltendorf 1+ goals
90%
Eltendorf 2+ goals
68%
Eltendorf 3+ goals
41%
Markt Allhau 1+ goals
83%
Markt Allhau 2+ goals
52%
Markt Allhau 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Eltendorf (draw refunded)
64%
Markt Allhau (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eltendorf at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Markt Allhau away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.20 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eltendorf attack 2.50 + Markt Allhau defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.35

Markt Allhau attack 1.37 + Eltendorf defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eltendorf scores more
51%
level
20%
Markt Allhau scores more
29%

Eltendorf at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Eltendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Eltendorf host Markt Allhau

May 16, 2020: Eltendorf take on Markt Allhau in Landesliga - Burgenland. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Eltendorf host Markt Allhau at Navigat Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.