Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Elosport U20 vs Comercial de Tietê U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Elosport U20
Elosport U20
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Comercial de Tietê U20
Comercial de Tietê U20
Unknown 90+1', 67', 39'
5/17/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Doutor José Sidney Cunha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Elosport U2023%
×Draw20%
Comercial de Tietê U2057%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elosport U20
1.38
Comercial de Tietê U20
2.27

Comercial de Tietê U20 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Elosport U20
0.60
Comercial de Tietê U20
1.15

allows per match

Elosport U20
3.40
Comercial de Tietê U20
2.15

finishing

Elosport U20+0.00on par
Comercial de Tietê U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 70Under: 3070%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 67No: 3367%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elosport U20 ↓

Comercial de Tietê U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Elosport U20 or draw
43%
Elosport U20 or Comercial de Tietê U20
80%
Draw or Comercial de Tietê U20
77%

Winning margin

Elosport U20 wins by 2+
10%
Comercial de Tietê U20 wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Elosport U20 1+ goals
75%
Elosport U20 2+ goals
40%
Elosport U20 3+ goals
16%
Comercial de Tietê U20 1+ goals
90%
Comercial de Tietê U20 2+ goals
66%
Comercial de Tietê U20 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Elosport U20 (draw refunded)
29%
Comercial de Tietê U20 (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elosport U20 at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Comercial de Tietê U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elosport U20 attack 0.60 + Comercial de Tietê U20 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.38

Comercial de Tietê U20 attack 1.15 + Elosport U20 defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Elosport U20 scores more
23%
level
20%
Comercial de Tietê U20 scores more
57%

Comercial de Tietê U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Comercial de Tietê U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
67'
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Elosport U20 0–3 Comercial de Tietê U20

Comercial de Tietê U20 beat Elosport U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 17, 2024.

Goals: ? (39', 67', 90+1').

The match was played at Estádio Doutor José Sidney Cunha in Capão Bonito, São Paulo.