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Elmina Sharks vs Sefwi All Stars — Division One League 2025

Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sefwi All Stars
Sefwi All Stars
10/17/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Elmina Sharks55%
×Draw27%
Sefwi All Stars17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elmina Sharks
1.43
Sefwi All Stars
0.67

Elmina Sharks creates 113% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Elmina Sharks
1.33
Sefwi All Stars
0.40

allows per match

Elmina Sharks
0.93
Sefwi All Stars
1.53

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par
Sefwi All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

Sefwi All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw
83%
Elmina Sharks or Sefwi All Stars
73%
Draw or Sefwi All Stars
45%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
28%
Sefwi All Stars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
76%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
42%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
17%
Sefwi All Stars 1+ goals
49%
Sefwi All Stars 2+ goals
15%
Sefwi All Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
76%
Sefwi All Stars (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Sefwi All Stars away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.33 + Sefwi All Stars defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sefwi All Stars attack 0.40 + Elmina Sharks defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more
55%
level
27%
Sefwi All Stars scores more
17%

Elmina Sharks at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elmina Sharks vs Sefwi All Stars

Elmina Sharks beat Sefwi All Stars 3-0 in Division One League on October 17, 2025.