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Elmina Sharks vs Rospak — Division One League 2025

Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Rospak
Rospak
11/14/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Elmina Sharks45%
×Draw27%
Rospak28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elmina Sharks
1.43
Rospak
1.06

Elmina Sharks creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Elmina Sharks
1.33
Rospak
1.20

allows per match

Elmina Sharks
0.93
Rospak
1.53

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par
Rospak+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

Rospak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw
72%
Elmina Sharks or Rospak
73%
Draw or Rospak
55%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
22%
Rospak wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
76%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
42%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
17%
Rospak 1+ goals
65%
Rospak 2+ goals
29%
Rospak 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
62%
Rospak (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Rospak away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.33 + Rospak defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Rospak attack 1.20 + Elmina Sharks defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more
45%
level
27%
Rospak scores more
28%

Elmina Sharks at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Elmina Sharks 1–3 Rospak

Rospak beat Elmina Sharks 3-1 in Division One League on November 14, 2025.