Elmina Sharks 3–0 Eleven Wise: Result & Stats

Elmina Sharks

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Eleven Wise

10/3/2025

Division One League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Elmina Sharks68%

×Draw22%

Eleven Wise10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elmina SharksExpected goals in this matchEleven Wise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.53

Elmina Sharks

1.80

Eleven Wise

0.53

Elmina Sharks creates 240% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.33

creates per match

0.13

0.93

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Elmina Sharks

1.33

Eleven Wise

0.13

allows per match

Elmina Sharks

0.93

Eleven Wise

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Eleven Wise+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

Eleven Wise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw

90%

Elmina Sharks or Eleven Wise

78%

Draw or Eleven Wise

32%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+

41%

Eleven Wise wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals

83%

Elmina Sharks 2+ goals

54%

Elmina Sharks 3+ goals

27%

Eleven Wise 1+ goals

41%

Eleven Wise 2+ goals

10%

Eleven Wise 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)

87%

Eleven Wise (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Eleven Wise away — creates 0.13, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.33 + Eleven Wise defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.80

Eleven Wise attack 0.13 + Elmina Sharks defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more

68%

level

22%

Eleven Wise scores more

10%

Elmina Sharks at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff