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Elmina Sharks vs Bechem United — Premier League 2019

Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Bechem United
Bechem United
T. Mensah 79', 36'
E. Boakye Owusu 90+2'
A. Okrah 28'
E. Annor 19'
3/13/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Elmina Sharks48%
×Draw27%
Bechem United25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elmina Sharks
1.41
Bechem United
0.94

Elmina Sharks creates 50% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 109 away

creates per match

Elmina Sharks
1.26
Bechem United
0.82

allows per match

Elmina Sharks
1.05
Bechem United
1.56

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par
Bechem United+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

Bechem United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw
75%
Elmina Sharks or Bechem United
73%
Draw or Bechem United
52%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
23%
Bechem United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
76%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
41%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
17%
Bechem United 1+ goals
61%
Bechem United 2+ goals
24%
Bechem United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
66%
Bechem United (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Bechem United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.56 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.26 + Bechem United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Bechem United attack 0.82 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more
48%
level
27%
Bechem United scores more
25%

Elmina Sharks at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
E. Annor
27'
S. Arthur
28'
A. Okrah
30'
I. Donkor← I. Donkor
36'
T. Mensah
39'
55'
C. Obeng← C. Obeng
55'
F. Oteng← F. Oteng
55'
J. Essam← J. Essam
66'
72'
79'
T. Mensah
80'
85'
M. Sarpong← M. Sarpong
90+2'
E. Boakye Owusu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Elmina Sharks 2–3 Bechem United

Bechem United beat Elmina Sharks 3-2 in Premier League on March 13, 2022.

Goals: E. Annor (19'), A. Okrah (28'), T. Mensah (36', 79'), E. Boakye Owusu (90+2').

The match was played at Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium in Elmina.