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Elmina Sharks vs Aduana Stars — Premier League 2019

Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
FT
0 – 0
Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
3/25/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Elmina Sharks44%
×Draw30%
Aduana Stars27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elmina Sharks
1.21
Aduana Stars
0.87

Elmina Sharks creates 39% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 112 away

creates per match

Elmina Sharks
1.20
Aduana Stars
0.74

allows per match

Elmina Sharks
1.00
Aduana Stars
1.22

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par
Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

Aduana Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw
73%
Elmina Sharks or Aduana Stars
70%
Draw or Aduana Stars
56%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
19%
Aduana Stars wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
70%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
34%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
12%
Aduana Stars 1+ goals
58%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
22%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
62%
Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 46 matches

Aduana Stars away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.22 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.20 + Aduana Stars defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Aduana Stars attack 0.74 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more
44%
level
30%
Aduana Stars scores more
27%

Elmina Sharks at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elmina Sharks vs Aduana Stars

Elmina Sharks and Aduana Stars drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 25, 2018.

The match was played at Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium in Elmina.