Ellerton 4–1 St. Andrew Lions: Result & Stats

Ellerton

FT

4 – 1

St. Andrew Lions

7/23/2023

Premier League · Round 11Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Ellerton56%

×Draw20%

St. Andrew Lions24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EllertonExpected goals in this matchSt. Andrew Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.52

Ellerton

2.38

St. Andrew Lions

1.52

Ellerton creates 57% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 27 away

1.95

creates per match

1.67

1.38

allows per match

2.81

creates per match

Ellerton

1.95

St. Andrew Lions

1.67

allows per match

Ellerton

1.38

St. Andrew Lions

2.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ellerton+0.00on par

St. Andrew Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ellerton ↓

St. Andrew Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Ellerton or draw

76%

Ellerton or St. Andrew Lions

80%

Draw or St. Andrew Lions

44%

Winning margin

Ellerton wins by 2+

35%

St. Andrew Lions wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ellerton 1+ goals

91%

Ellerton 2+ goals

68%

Ellerton 3+ goals

42%

St. Andrew Lions 1+ goals

78%

St. Andrew Lions 2+ goals

45%

St. Andrew Lions 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Ellerton (draw refunded)

70%

St. Andrew Lions (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ellerton at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

St. Andrew Lions away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ellerton attack 1.95 + St. Andrew Lions defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.38

St. Andrew Lions attack 1.67 + Ellerton defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ellerton scores more

56%

level

20%

St. Andrew Lions scores more

24%

Ellerton at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ellerton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff