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Ellerton vs Silver Sands — Premier League 2019

Ellerton
Ellerton
FT
3 – 0
Silver Sands
Silver Sands
7/19/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Ellerton71%
×Draw16%
Silver Sands13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ellerton
2.71
Silver Sands
1.10

Ellerton creates 146% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 23 away

creates per match

Ellerton
1.95
Silver Sands
0.83

allows per match

Ellerton
1.38
Silver Sands
3.48

finishing

Ellerton+0.00on par
Silver Sands+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ellerton ↓

Silver Sands →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Ellerton or draw
87%
Ellerton or Silver Sands
84%
Draw or Silver Sands
29%

Winning margin

Ellerton wins by 2+
50%
Silver Sands wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ellerton 1+ goals
93%
Ellerton 2+ goals
75%
Ellerton 3+ goals
50%
Silver Sands 1+ goals
67%
Silver Sands 2+ goals
30%
Silver Sands 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ellerton (draw refunded)
84%
Silver Sands (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ellerton at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

Silver Sands away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ellerton attack 1.95 + Silver Sands defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.71

Silver Sands attack 0.83 + Ellerton defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ellerton scores more
71%
level
16%
Silver Sands scores more
13%

Ellerton at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ellerton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ellerton 3–0 Silver Sands

Ellerton beat Silver Sands 3-0 in Premier League on July 19, 2023.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.