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Ellerton vs Paradise — Premier League 2026

Ellerton
Ellerton
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Paradise
Paradise
5/20/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ellerton28%
×Draw21%
Paradise51%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ellerton
1.48
Paradise
2.07

Paradise creates 40% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ellerton
1.70
Paradise
2.74

allows per match

Ellerton
1.40
Paradise
1.26

finishing

Ellerton+0.00on par
Paradise+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ellerton ↓

Paradise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ellerton or draw
49%
Ellerton or Paradise
79%
Draw or Paradise
72%

Winning margin

Ellerton wins by 2+
12%
Paradise wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Ellerton 1+ goals
77%
Ellerton 2+ goals
43%
Ellerton 3+ goals
19%
Paradise 1+ goals
87%
Paradise 2+ goals
61%
Paradise 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Ellerton (draw refunded)
35%
Paradise (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ellerton at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

Paradise away — creates 2.74, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ellerton attack 1.70 + Paradise defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.48

Paradise attack 2.74 + Ellerton defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ellerton scores more
28%
level
21%
Paradise scores more
51%

Paradise at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Paradise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ellerton 2–1 Paradise

Ellerton beat Paradise 2-1 in Premier League on May 20, 2026.